The 2015 election is normally, to all intents and purposes, a contest between two PDP politicians.
When Muhammadu Buhari ran for president in 2011, he made a solemn pledge to Nigerians: “This campaign is the 0.33 and ultimate one for me. i cannot provide myself again for election into the place of work of president.” Buhari used to be persuaded to break this pledge as a result of Bola Tinubu made him an offer he might now not refuse.
He would merge his ACN birthday party with Buhari’s CPC birthday party. Tinubu’s putative South-West power can be mixed with Buhari’s mythical North-West supremacy. the result of this alchemy would be politically unstoppable: subsequent stop Aso Rock!
|Tinubu and Buhari|
then again, this plan began to unravel quickly after the marriage and the honeymoon. Overwhelmingly, Nigerian public opinion rejected the speculation of a Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket; successfully short-circuiting all delusions of a dream Buhari/Tinubu ticket. With APC’s nerve-wracking loss in its presumed stronghold of Ekiti, and with it most effective ready to eke out a victory in its Osun backyard, and with Mimiko’s defection in Ondo bringing that state again to the ambit of the PDP, Tinubu’s a lot-vaunted strength in the South-West changed into more fiction than truth.
Fourth coming of Buhari
If the door used to be slammed shut to a conceivable vice-presidency, Tinubu nonetheless has the plan B of nominating a disciple as Buhari’s vice-presidential running-mate. in this case, when Buhari ultimately declared his candidature for president for a marathon fourth time at Eagle sq., Abuja, Tinubu’s ACN brigadiers had been there in full regalia to offer him conspicuous moral strengthen. The wily Asiwaju himself used to be absent, perhaps with the intention to appear a good dealer among the many APC presidential gladiators. nonetheless, he was suitably represented by using his Senator spouse, Oluremi Tinubu.
other ACN timber and caliber, together with Babatunde Fashola of Lagos, were also in attendance.
alternatively, quite than crate an unstoppable momentum, Buhari’s formal declaration simplest seemed to have centred minds about his possibilities. The prognosis was inauspicious. There can be no excellent good fortune in Buhari’s fourth trip. the person is just politically unelectable as Nigeria’s president. a few of his flip-coat political allies always feared this. as an instance, Nasir El-Rufai, who now nearly operates as Buhari’s “chief of body of workers,” observed only a few years again that Buhari continues to be “eternally unelectable” because of his “insensitivity to Nigeria’s diversity and his parochial focus.”
Buhari’s declared candidacy re-awakened previous angst about his cynical political antecedents, and it made many reappraise his possibilities more realistically, now that his candidature was beyond conjecture. The conclusion continues to be the identical. Buhari has die-laborious Hausa-Fulani support in the North.
but he has even more dyed-in-the-wool opposition in most different parts of the federation. His core Northern improve is not likely to translate over again to victory at the centre, even with the promissory note of Tinubu’s fading ACN make stronger within the South-West.
back to the supermarket
Any right-pondering person knows that Buhari just isn’t the type of man to allow Tinubu to develop into the king in the back of his presidential throne. due to this fact, it didn’t take long for the Tinubu mafia to begin looking for a new candidate with much less political baggage than Buhari. certainly, the writing is on the wall that they are now almost certainly to ditch Buhari with a view to pitch their tent with any other, more malleable, APC presidential hopeful.
One probably possibility is embattled Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, who eventually introduced his divorce from the PDP this month, after committing adultery with the opposition for the better part of 4 years.
Tambuwal had his eyes on the place of Governor of Sokoto State. but in a dramatic turnaround, he has now been persuaded to pick up the nomination kind for the APC presidential contest.
, the Tinubu brigadiers are actually pronouncing Buhari is simply too previous to be president. certainly, if elected, he can be Nigeria’s oldest president at 73. If he runs successfully for two phrases, he would nonetheless be president at eighty one. The question-mark of Buhari’s age was hardly ever a hidden secret unless now. it’s only that, in the treacherous terrain of Nigerian politics, it gives a ready-made excuse for ditching him.
Fashola, who was once there to make stronger Buhari at his Eagle sq. declaration, now says what Nigeria desires are younger leaders and now not geriatrics: “When 40-yr olds are actually best nations and our forty-year olds can’t even get to the Senate, they are able to’t even grow to be governors. Are we in reality making ready this technology for the future? those are the problems in point of fact. We can not level to success in other nations and refuse to do what these people are doing to get issues right.” this is a coded way of saying Buhari is now means too old for Aso Rock.
Politics is a treacherous trade. Buhari should comprehend this by way of now. He himself was treacherous in being a part of a gang of armed forces officers that seized power illegally from a democratically-elected govt in the course of the barrel of a gun. He was once then, in flip, treacherously overthrown with the aid of his personal mates. Buhari must know he is coping with politicians pro in betrayal. indeed, duplicity is the stuff politics and politicians are fabricated from. In politics, everyone stabs each person in the again. therefore, everyone will have to are expecting to be stabbed within the back.
asked if he would again Buhari if Buhari wins the nomination for the APC ticket, Atiku advised everyone he would simply stab Buhari in the back; without seeming to realise it. He mentioned: “i believe i’ve proved that i am a realistic politician. keep in mind that in 2010 when I failed to get the PDP ticket against President Jonathan, I and others went to try to bring about an electoral alliance between the CPC and ACN.” Atiku’s “pragmatism” is the stuff of treachery. He failed within the PDP so he promptly switched to create an alliance between two other opposition events. The bell tolls for the APC.
Nuhu Ribadu, as EFCC chairman, named Bola Tinubu as public enemy primary. however then he grew to become round to develop into the anointed presidential candidate of Tinubu’s ACN celebration. This didn’t prevent Tinubu from stabbing him within the back. Tinubu entered into a final minute handle Buhari of the CPC. however, he entered into any other suspected backroom take care of Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP. but there was once payback time for Ribadu. Ribadu was once part of the APC merger. however then he chose his time to ditch Tinubu and the APC for the PDP.
a few of us have lengthy maintained that Buhari is a political neophyte. we’ve had result in to warn him that nobody wins the nomination of a political party like the APC, laden with corrupt politicians; by using announcing he’s going to battle corruption if elected. Buhari’s anti-corruption hyperbole is a component of what’s responsible for the consumers-regret his presidential bid is already experiencing.
without the backing of the Tinubu brigade, Buhari does now not have a prayer in getting the APC ticket. His lack of political understand-how goes to be an important handicap. he’s up against people like Atiku Abubakar; seasoned wheeler-seller politicians who know the way to arm-twist conference delegates. Buhari, alternatively, has by no means had to struggle to get a party’s nomination. as an alternative, parties were fashioned round his presidential ambitions.
Atiku, in particular, has haggled and wrangled thru many nomination conventions because the early Nineties. moreover, he has a warfare-chest of naira bank-notes with which to grease the method. however Buhari, the man who claims he had to take a financial institution loan in an effort to purchase the APC presidential nomination papers, is going to have a tricky time convincing APC delegates to pitch their tent with him with out providing pocket infrastructure. Buhari’s method is not the realistic way to run for president in today’s federal republic of Nigeria.
the approaching ditching of Buhari by Tinubu manner the forthcoming APC conference to decide on the birthday celebration’s presidential candidate goes to be a massacre. it is really going to be unsightly. There will probably be useless our bodies strewn everywhere the convention ground. canines and baboons will certainly be soaked in blood.
With its do-or-die politicians preventing to finish on the eve of the February elections, the APC will quickly present a textbook case of how to not marketing campaign in opposition to an established celebration just like the PDP in Nigeria.
Buhari’s talakawa supporters, who caused mayhem when he lost the remaining presidential election, won’t take kindly to his seemingly defeat at the APC primaries. If Buhari is rejected, he would be humiliated. it might were better for him not to have run. Don’t purchase all of the pious talk that the losers will beef up the winner; it is not going to happen. even though Buhari were to make a decision to be diplomatic about his defeat, his incendiary supporters don’t have the phrase diplomacy of their vocabulary.
The APC is caught in a catch-22. If it fields Buhari, it is going to fail at the polls beneath the weight of his previous political bag and baggage. If it rejects Buhari, all reliance on his mystical 12 million votes will go up in smoke. Tambuwal, Kwankwaso or Atiku can not replicate those votes. they have neither Buhari’s hype nor his charisma. With Buhari out of the reckoning, a lot of his disgruntled supporters would moderately rebellion than vote. The APC itself would implode underneath the weight of its own inner contradictions. this is the anti-climax to the entire hue and cry concerning the 2015 election that’s now within the playing cards.
The ditching of Buhari would open a transparent pathway for Atiku; the flesh presser’s baby-kisser and Aminu Tambuwal, the dark horse. Atiku’s dismal performance in earlier polls is eloquent testimony that his presidential hopes are a pie within the sky. Tambuwal within the APC ticket would be even worse than the final exhibiting of Nuhu Ribadu of the ACN, who used to be even better-known nationally than Tambuwal.
All these shenanigans means the 2015 election will likely be, to all intents and purposes, a contest between two PDP politicians. The APC that boasts to be an alternative to the PDP is more likely to prove with a former PDP member as its presidential candidate. that is trade we can for sure do without.