Following a no confidence victory over her leadership in December, Mrs May admitted to Conservative MPs she knew they wouldn’t let them lead her into another general election in three years time. But the Prime Minister has always insisted she is determined to at least see her Brexit deal passed in the Commons before stepping down. When quizzed about when she plans to resign, Theresa May said: “As far as I’m concerned, my job is not just about delivering Brexit.
“There is still a domestic agenda that I want to get on with.”
Mrs May has been under intense pressure for months as her own MPs, as well as rival ministers, grow frustrated at the slow progress of Brexit negotiations with Brussels and fears the UK will crash out of the bloc without a deal.
Nearly a year ago, former Brexit Secretary David Davis was the first candidate to publicly express an interest in becoming Prime Minister but surprising, he doesn’t even feature in the latest betting.
Environmental Minister Michael Gove is joint favourite with Jeremy Corbyn among bookmakers to replace Mrs May as the next Prime Minister.
They are both 5/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral, with Mr Corbyn marginally ahead in the betting at Paddy Power (4/1).
The Labour leader has remained a hot favourite to become the next Prime Minister, despite the continued antisemitism crisis engulfing the party and the resignation of several MPs over alleged bullying and mistreatment.
Earlier this week, Brexit tensions threatened to boil over in the Conservative Party when Mr Gove confronted Chancellor Philip Hammond over no deal preparations, according to a report in The Daily Telegraph.
Coral’s Harry Aitkenhead said: “Michael Gove has been the most popular selection for political punters over the last week or so in the next Prime Minister market, and it has catapulted right to the top of our betting.”
Boris Johnson, who has remained largely out of the public spotlight recently, follows closely behind in the betting at 6/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral, and 13/2 at Betfair Exchange.
Last month, hardline Brexiteers from the European Research Group (ERG) wanted Mrs May to stand down as Prime Minister, with the former Foreign Secretary lined up to replace her.
Mr Johnson continues to be a hot favourite among punters to take the hot seat, though he has always distanced himself from it when quizzed on the possibility.
Home Secretary Sajid Javid, former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington are long-shots with the bookmakers to be the next Prime Minister.
Mrs May would yet remain as Prime Minister for several months more, especially if her Brexit deal is rejected by MPs in Parliament’s meaningful vote on Tuesday.
Punters are still piling plenty money on Mrs May’s Brexit deal not making it through Parliament – with odds of 1/5 at Ladbrokes and Coral, and 2/9 at Betfair Exchange.
If this were to happen, ministers would be given the chance to vote on a no deal on Wednesday, meaning the UK would leave the European Union without any Withdrawal Agreement in place.
A no deal Bexit is highly unlikely to be favoured, so MPs would then vote on a delay to the process and an extension to Article 50, possibly adding many more months before the UK actually leaves the EU.
But Mrs May is still odds-on favourite with the bookmakers to be replaced as Prime Minister this year – 4/6 at Paddy Power, 8/13 at Ladbrokes and Coral, and 8/15 at Betfair Exchange.
Coral’s Harry Aitkenhead said: “Our betting certainly suggests that Theresa May won’t head into 2020 still in office and 2019 is the odds on favourite to be the year that she is replaced.”
Ladbrokes thinks the most likely month the Prime Minister is replaced will be in May at 8/1, but Paddy Power have slashed the odds of her actually stepping down this month to 4/1.