Peterborough by-election polls: UK polling data latest – who will win by election?

Posted on Jun 5 2019 - 5:34pm by admin

Peterborough voters will have their say about who they want to represent them in Westminster on Thursday, June 6. Former Labour MP Fiona Onasanya is to be replaced after she was removed from her post on May 1 following a petition recall. Ms Onasanya was jailed for perverting the course of justice after lying to police to avoid prosecution for a speeding offence. So who will Peterborough constituents decide to elect at the polling stations on Thursday?

How did Peterborough vote in the last election?

In the 2017 General Election Labour candidate Fiona Onasanya was elected with 48.1 percent of the vote.

She was closely followed by the Conservative candidate with 46.8 percent of the vote.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party managed to attain 3.3 and 1.8 percent of the vote in 2017 respectively.

REDA MORE: The FULL LIST of candidates standing for election – all the runners and riders

How did Peterborough vote in the EU referendum vote?

Peterborough voted overwhelmingly in favour of leaving the EU in the 2016 referendum.

Leave voters numbered 60.1 percent in comparison to 39.1 percent for Remain out of a turnout of 72.3 percent.

This same pro-Brexit Leave feeling was repeated at the end of May when Nigel Farage’s party won twice as many votes as its nearest rival Labour.

The Brexit Party polled 7,272 votes, while Labour drew a result of 7,272 votes followed by the Liberal Democrats on 6,491 votes.

So what do the latest polls predict for the Peterborough by election?

The vote on Thursday, June 6 is likely to go local businessman and Brexit Party candidate Mike Greene. Peterborough given the strong pro-Brexit sentiment in the region.

The Latest Opinium from May 31 supports this with Brexit surging ahead with a 26 percent voting intention share for a general election.

Labour came in second place with a voting share of 22 percent, down seven points from the previous poll recorded before the European elections.

The Conservatives are also suffering and area down five points in the Opinium poll.

The Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party made gains with both Remain and Leave voters.

The Liberal Democrats had 16 percent of the vote, up 10 percent with Remain voters and 1 percent with Leave voters from last week.

The Green Party had 11 percent of the vote, an increase of eight percent and seven percent from last week with Remain and Leave voters respectively.

However, not all polls agree that Brexit Party have this MP position in the bag.

According to a YouGov survey carried out for The Times, despite the impressive results from the Brexit Party during the European elections, the Liberal Democrats would win if a general election were held.

The poll was published on May 31 and showed that 24 percent would back the Liberal Democrats, with Brexit Party coming second with 22 percent.

The two parties stand at completely opposite ends of the Brexit debate, but both attracted plenty of support from voters last week and will have more MEPs than any other British party in the new European Parliament.

Nigel Farage was among 29 Brexit Party MEP candidates to claim a seat, while the Liberal Democrats won 16.

Ladbrokes make it just a 1/6 shot the Brexit Party wins the by-election, putting them streets ahead in the betting, with Labour out at 4/1 and every other runner 33/1 or bigger.

Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: “At this point it’s hard to see anything other than a win for the Brexit Party in the Peterborough by-election.”

Who will win Peterborough by-election? (Ladbrokes odds)

Brexit Party – 1/6

Labour – 4/1

Lib Dems – 33/1

Conservative – 50/1

Green – 100/1

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