Could no deal mean NO BREXIT? Reasons why failure to reach a deal could BLOCK Brexit

Posted on Oct 25 2017 - 12:43am by admin

The Brexit talks appear to be floundering with Britain and the EU clashing over the size of the Brexit divorce bill that the UK must pay to leave. 

Time is running out before the deadline of March 2019 and Theresa May has signalled there will be no transitional period unless a deal is struck. 

If the UK is forced to walk away with no deal, there are mounting fears that pro-EU MPs could push to reverse the decision to quit the EU altogether.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox has insisted that a failure to agree a deal with the EU was “not exactly a nightmare scenario”.

But Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry has pledged to stop a ‘no deal’ scenario amid fears that the economy could drop off a cliff. 

“I think we are heading for no deal,” Ms Thornberry told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Sunday. 

“I think that that is a serious threat to Britain and it is not in Britain’s interest for that to happen and we will stop it.”

With the EU and British negotiators stuck in a deadlock, here is a look at five reasons why a no deal could lead to no Brexit at all.  

1. No deal could lead to political crisis 

If Theresa May fails to get a deal with the EU quick enough, she could end up facing a leadership challenge or perhaps even another election. 

The Prime Minister only has a weak position in Parliament and is relying on support from the DUP after losing the Conservative majority in the summer.  

Failure to reach a deal would lead to calls for more of a hardliner to replace Mrs May and take charge of talks. 

But if this were to happen, Labour could move a vote of no confidence which could the pave the way for political crisis and fresh elections. 

2. Trade deal breaks down amid EU disunity 

The 27 other members states of the EU have presented a united front so far. 

But divisions could emerge between the EU countries when the UK embarks on talks over its future trading relationship with the EU. 

With EU trade deals notoriously difficult to negotiate, there are fears that the EU could fail to reach an agreement which is satisfactory to the UK.  

If the UK is faced with delaying Brexit, no deal or a ‘bad deal’, the government may be forced to call a general election. 

3. Parliament rejects Brexit 

Even after the UK government strikes a deal with the EU, it still needs to get approval from the House of Commons and the House of Lords. 

Theresa May also needs to get enough support from MPs to pass the legislation needed to take the UK out of the EU. 

The Prime Minister faces the risk of defeat in the Commons because she has a minority government and is relying on the DUP to pass legislation. 

4. Brexit process goes on and on 

Under Article 50, the other 27 members of the EU could agree to extend Brexit talks beyond two years. 

Brexiteers fears that a protracted Brexit process would lead to frustration and could lessen public appetite for the EU exit. 

In the meantime, Remain supporters could take the opportunity to keep calling for a second referendum on EU membership. 

5. Britain revokes Article 50 after all 

There is uncertainty over whether is legal possible for Britain to revoke Article 50 and end the Brexit process. 

One author of Article 50, the Conservative peer Timothy Kirkhope, has said: “My clear understanding then and now is that the UK or any withdrawing country can reverse Article 50 and withdraw to status quo unilaterally.”

A decision to reverse Article 50 would spark outcry across Britain. “It is impossible,” said one Cabinet minister. “It just can’t happen. There would be a revolution.”

Leave A Response