The contest in the mid-Wales constituency in just 29 days on August 1, will be the first major Brexit indicator for the next Prime Minister, who will take office just nine days earlier on July 23. Either Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt will have to walk on the same tight-rope as Prime Minister Theresa May and cannot afford to lose another MP – the Conservatives propped up by the DUP now only has a working majority of six in the House of Commons. The result of the Welsh vote next month, which was held by Tory MP Chris Davies before he was unseated, will be the most pivotal indicator ahead of Britain’s scheduled exit from the bloc on October 31.
The hugely divided seat mirrored the split across the country in the 2016 EU referendum.
Three years ago 51.86 percent vote to Leave and 48.14 voted to Remain in the EU.
Failure for the Conservatives to hold onto its majority of 8,038, gained in the 2017 general election, or if the Brexit Party fail to win the seat, it could prove the end of the next leader’s chances of delivering on Brexit.
Liberal Democrat MEP Dinesh Dhamija said if the Tories lose another parliamentarian the Party will be left cornered on Brexit and the chances of getting a deal through Parliament “are toast”.
Mr Dhamija also dashed the chances of the next leader railroading a no deal Brexit through the Commons, he said the party will be left with “no wiggle room” if the result goes against the Government.
Mr Dhamija told The New European: “It will be a huge thorn in the side of any incoming Conservative Prime Minister, who upon assuming office will face the same wafer-thin majority as Theresa May.
“The Conservative majority is anaemic to say the least and they simply cannot afford to lose any more MPs, especially if their leader is hoping to push a disastrous no-deal exit through parliament.
“They will have virtually no wiggle room.”
The Lib Dem MEP also cited the result in the Peterborough by-election last month, where the Labour Party saw-off strong competition from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, and stated the “tide is turning” across the country.
The Brecon and Radnorshire by-election was triggered after Chris Davies MP lost his seat he lost after more than 10,000 constituents signed a petition to remove him.
Mr Davies has since been selected again by the Conservatives and will battle for votes at the ballot box against Labour’s Tom Davies, Jane Dodds, Liberal Democrats and Des Parkinson of the Brexit Party.