‘Brexit Party will DOMINATE Tories in European elections – but Farage’s success WON’T last

Posted on May 21 2019 - 6:43am by admin

The newly-launched party, led by former Ukip leader, have made an immediate impact as Britons head to the polls to vote MEPs into the European Parliament. In the latest poll by YouGov of 7,192 British adults from May 12-16, the Brexit Party continues to take full advantage of the carnage engulfing the Conservative Party and Labour Party, with 35 percent intending to vote for them. Labour is back in third position with 15 percent and behind the Liberal Democrats on 16 percent, with the Conservatives languishing in fifth with just nine percent – shifting them behind the Green Party (10 percent).

EU Elections LIVE: Farage says there’s one HUGE thing giving Brexit Party EDGE over Tories

Theresa May’s struggles to get Britain out of the European Union have continued to blow a huge hole in voter confidence, with 62 percent of Conservative voters from 2017 now opting for the Brexit Party.

Political experts have warned the Brexit Party will almost certainly be a “huge threat” to the Tories at this week’s European elections.

Alistair Jones, a politics professor at De Montfort University in Leicester, told Express.co.uk: “The Brexit Party is going to be a huge threat to the Conservatives at the European elections, as well as to Ukip.

“Assuming the Brexiteer vote bothers to turn out, the Brexit Party is likely to be the largest party and if the Ukip vote does not collapse, then the Brexit Party will only vacuum up ex-Tory votes.”

Wyn Grant, a politics professor at the University of Warwick, said despite Mr Farage’s claims, the Conservatives and Labour will continue to dominate British politics because they still have “recognised brands” to win votes.

He told Express.co.uk: “Many claims have been made about breaking the two party system and it hasn’t happened yet in the sense that a Government is likely to be formed or the Conservatives or Labour, albeit reliant on support from another party.

“There is clearly some evidence of fracturing of traditional alignments in the sense that voters are more willing to identify themselves as ‘remainers’ or ‘leavers’ rather than Conservative or Labour.

“But both of those parties still have readily recognised brands which they can convert into votes.”

Professor Jones outlined Ukip and Mr Farage’s success during the last European elections in 2014, with the party since falling into the shadows of British politics.

Five years ago, Ukip won 26.6 percent of the vote, edging out Labour (24.4 percent) and the Conservatives (23.1 percent) but in the last general election in 2017, gained a lowly 1.8 percent of the vote.

He said: “The life of the Brexit Party beyond the European elections is not likely to last because if we compare to all previous European elections where UKIP did very well, their vote collapsed.

“To gain a breakthrough in general elections, a party needs to poll close to 30 percent of the votes – the Lib Dems gained 23 percent of the vote in 2010, and 57 seats, but this was still not a breakthrough number of seats.

“Local elections and European elections are very good for protest votes, where these parties do well but they are also only secondary elections.

“Most people do not treat these elections as seriously as they do a general election and consequently, they are happier to express a protest vote but return to the party fold in the subsequent general election.”

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