If Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes to secure victory at the next general election, he will have to pull the UK from the bloc without a deal, a poll has revealed. The Tories would secure a seven-point lead over Labour and wipe out opposition from the Brexit Party, ComRes analysis says.
The poll results indicate if the Prime Minister fails to leave the Brussels bloc by any other means, the Tories are unlikely to gain a Commons majority.
Ben Walker, founder of Britain Elects, which commissioned ComRes, said: “The polling does show how in the event of a no deal Brexit Leave voters would coalesce around one party, uniting the Leave brand whereas the Remain side would stay split, gifting the Conservatives a majority.”
The poll questioned 2,004 adults between July 26 and 28 and put the Tories out on front with 36 percent of the vote.
Labour trailed with 29 percent, with Lib Dems on 15 percent and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party came in fourth with just eight percent of the vote.
According to Electoral Calculus, that would translate into a 64-seat majority for Mr Johnson, with the Conservatives on 357 seats, Labour on 210 and Lib Dems 26.
The Brexit Party would be left without any MPs.
The research indicated that if the Prime Minister were to hold an election before October 31, his Commons majority would cease.
The data showed the Tories would fall 58 seats short of a majority, just narrowly ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.
JUST IN: BBC host slams Swinson for ‘working the system’ after by-election win
Labour would come out on top with 225 seats, followed by the Brexit Party with 170 seats.
The final Brexit scenario, where the UK left with a similar withdrawal agreement to Theresa May’s, would still see the Tories fail to win enough seats in the Commons.
Labour would emerge victorious with 295 seats, 31 seats short of a Commons majority.
The analysis supports Mr Johnson’s “do or die” Brexit strategy where he has promised to pull the UK from the EU “with or without a deal” on October 31.
His tactics have fuelled speculation that a general election is imminent, despite the Prime Minister having ruled out such an option.
The likelihood of a fresh vote was heightened further, after the Tories were defeated by the Lib Dems in yesterday’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.
Jane Dodds of the Lib Dems overturned an 8,038 majority to beat incumbent Conservative Chris Davies by 1,425 votes.
Mr Johnson now faces the Commons with just a one seat majority.