A snap election following the meaningful vote on December 11 would likely produce a Labour-led Government. This is the shocking conclusion of a major study into the voting intentions of 13,000 voters. The poll of polls, conducted by Electoral Calculus, predicted that if a snap elections were to be triggered in weeks the result would be a hung Parliament.
This would open the door to a Labour/SNP coalition.
Martin Baxter, the founder and chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said: “Parliament would be badly hung and would not be able to do very much with those figures.”
The poll shows the Conservative Party would get more votes than any other with 286, but because of Brexit divisions the Tories would struggle to create a majority with like-minded parties.
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This would hugely increase the chances for Labour to form a coalition with Ms Sturgeon’s party, as the study shows they would respectively gain 283 and 43 seats in the Commons.
With a combined 326 MPs out of the total 650 seats in the Commons, the parties could easily seize power from the Tories.
The Liberal Democrats would garner 16 seats, the study also shows.
The study highlighted that some of the most vulnerable Tory seats are currently held by prominent members of the party.
Among them, there are work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd, MP for Hastings and Rye, Zac Goldsmith, MP for Richmond Park, and former cabinet minister Theresa Villiers, MP for Chipping Barnet.
These results come as Mrs May is struggling to get her own party to unite around her Brexit deal, approved by the EU27 last Sunday.
More than 100 Tory MPs have already publicly declared they will vote down the agreement.
And seven Cabinet ministers have resigned since it was unveiled two weeks ago, with former science and universities minister Sam Gymah, the latest resigning Tory, branding the accord “a deal in name only”.
The Prime Minister has undertaken a PR campaign hoping to change the minds of her allies.
On leaving the two-day G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday evening, Mrs May conceded her task is difficult.
She said: “I’ll be talking with MPs and explaining to them why I believe this is a good deal.
“The next nine days are a really important time for our country.”
But Mrs May could face a new challenge as soon as tomorrow, as Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader in the Commons, said he expects an amendment to suspend the Article 50 EU withdrawal process to be brought forward in the Commons in the coming days.
He told BBC Scotland: “I expect when the Commons opens for business again on Monday that SNP MPs would put their name to that amendment and I am calling on all members of Parliament to consider backing that.
“Of course what we also need to do is make sure we can suspend the Article 50 process.
“Let’s take the risks off the table. Having done that, as I believe we will do then we’ve got the opportunity to move ahead on hopefully what is a consensus that can be built on a position that we can all support.
“Our position in the SNP is very clear, that Scotland voted to remain and we wish to remain a part of the European Union and we will be certainly putting forward that argument.”